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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter. That is about half of the historical averag...
Improving through 2025Q3. But taking out the revenue associated with the illegal IEEPA tariffs, well… Figure 1: Federal budget balance excluding automatic stabilizers (blue), and e...
From NIPA accounts: Figure 1: Petroleum and petroleum product exports (blue), imports (red), both in bn.$, SAAR. Source: BEA. For the balance in physical units of crude oil, here’s...
S&P Global Markets Insights monthly GDP (formerly IHS, Macroeconomic Advisers) online today. Here is monthly GDP againnst other NBER BCDC measures: Figure 1: NFP employment (bo...
Along with GDPNow. Industrial production under consensus (+0.1% m/m ov +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), while manufacturing is flat (+0.0% vs. +0.1% consensus). Figure 1: NFP employment...
Following further on Jim’s assessment on slow but steady headline GDP growth, core GDP growth remains strong. But GDP growth relies on AI related investment spending. Figure 1: Fin...
The WSJ July survey is out: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (blue), FT-Booth June survey (light green square), WEO July (purple triangle), GDPNow of 7/8 (light blu...
+30K < +78K Bloomberg consensus.
Understanding Q1 2026-27 GDP EstimatesFrequently Asked Questions (FAQ)Posted On: 02 SEP 2026 8:49PM by PIB DelhiUpdated GDP SeriesOn 31 August 2026, the updated series of annual a...
U.S. GDP grew 1.5% in Q2 2026, well below the 2.1% economists expected. Consumer spending and AI-driven investment stayed strong, but a widening trade deficit and a jump in inflati...
Following up on Jim’s GDP asssessment, here’re NBER BCDC indicators plus alternatives. Consumption growth remains strong, Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment...
Industrial production below consensus (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), manufacturing at consensus, although previous month’s revised up. Output measures continue to outpace employm...
Until the NSO publishes a transparent back-cast series and clarifies its deflator methodology, the headline 7.8% growth figure should be treated as indicative rather than definitiv...
Including Everyday Price Indexâ„¢. Nowcast suggests accelerating inflation in m/m August CPI: Figure 1: CPI (blue), CPI-wage earners and clerical workers (purple), chained CPI (gre...
According to A Statistical Revamp Is About To Lower Inflation by The Wall Street Journal, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is reformulating its Core PCE calculation. The marke...
Evidence of continued growth: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal incom...
Nominal consumption beats expectations ( +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% Bbg consensus), but real personal income ex-transfers remains below recent peak. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), c...
The U.S. economy grew at a slower rate in the second quarter as surging imports masked strong underlying demand. The Commerce Department said Thursday that gross domestic product—t...
+44K vs. +68K per Bloomberg consensus. Figure 1: Change since 2025M03 in private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), from ADP (red), 2023M04-2025M03 Stochastic trend (gray...
The August Survey of Professional Forecasters is out: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue), GDPNow of 8/14 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 8...
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