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How do we make sense of the factions and partisanship that now define Philippine politics?
The following came in the email the other day: I’m reaching out to introduce the Voter Impact Index, a new data tool from PowerMoves that assigns every U.S. zip code a voter impact...
Mathematics shows that every electoral system must compromise among proportionality, local representation, and parliament size. Denmark’s 2022 national election came down to a sing...
Median Strategies, which presented itself as an independent polling and research firm, recently shut down after the Los Angeles Times exposed it for fabricating a survey showing a...
Arithmetic doesn't care which party is in office. Politicians who cannot bring themselves to run the numbers forward, on prisons or anything else, will keep meeting their future as...
As with baseball, football, and basketball (and I’m sure other sports too), the standard of political analytics is just so much higher than it was, decades ago. I was talking with...
New York Times: “Polls are traditionally used to measure public opinion, not mold it. But this year, several Democratic campaigns have seized on unreliable polls to push the percep...
A popular suggestion in the recent member survey was to offer a way for readers to weigh in on the biggest political stories of the day beyond just commenting. So I’m testing Whip...
“The slow decline of traditional polling has left politicos, who are always desperate for numbers, in a lurch,” NOTUS reports. “Two venture-backed prediction market companies are o...
We’ve talked about uncertainty in polls (see Margin of Error, Total Margin of Error, Total Margin of Error II) and we’ve talked about ranked data (see exploded logit !). A new pape...
Bad polls. Misleading betting odds. Surveys meant to shape narratives. Ahead of the midterms and 2028, there is suddenly serious confusion about candidate strength and voter sentim...
Where supporters come from, the government they want, and how a tiny sliver could completely change the election result. The National Party has ruled out any post-election deal wi...
Yes, there have been some misfires in 2026 primary polling. But ignoring data isn’t the solution.
Evan Rosenman writes: The implosion of Graham Platner’s Senate campaign in Maine has upended a marquee Senate race, leaving the state Democratic party just a few weeks to choose a...
How reliable are political polls right now? NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben speaks to G. Elliott Morris from the data-driven news website, Strength In Numbers.
Political prognosticator Charlie Cook says Republicans may be facing a nightmare scenario, putting seats in play that should be safe for Republicans.
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