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Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index… NBER BCDC key measures: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NF...
Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment: Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturi...
From the releases today: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed popula...
Monthly GDP through March is up, while April CPI-deflated retail sales are down. The industrial and manufacturing production release is tomorrow. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blu...
The economic indicator drop signals potential rate cuts and economic slowdown, echoing 2008 crisis concerns and impacting future GDP growth. The post US economic indicators hit 0.8...
NFP up, but household survey series down. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), pe...
Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized): Figure 1: GDP (blue bars), SPGMI monthly GDP (red), Brave-Butters-Kelley index (blue), Coincident Index...
Not standard NBER BCDC indicators, but still interesting. First, all measures of personal income (pretax, aftertax) are down while consumption growth slows. Figure 1: Consumption (...
Nominal retail sales grew 1.7% m/m, above Bloomberg consensus of 1.4%. With the advance release of sales, and coincident index from the Philadelphia Fed, we have the following pic...
G.17 release today shows downward movement in industrial, manufacturing production (-0.5%, -0.1% vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1% m/m). Industrial capacity utilization also below cons...
The article presents the key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world economy as of the end of December 2025.
Gallup index falls to -45 even as Conference Board's leading indicator edges up in April
South Korea's industrial output, retail sales and facility investment all rose from a month earlier in March, official data showed Thursday. Industrial production edged up 0.3 perc...
Headlines are loud, but markets tend to move on quieter signals. The indicators that matter most, like yield curves, credit spreads, insider activity, and liquidity trends, rarely...
Click to expand Image A family collects water lilies from Boeung Tamok lake to sell at t...
Report warns past forecasts missed turning points as new indicators aim to spot next cycle
GDP grows 2% SAAR in the Q1 advance release (see Jim’s discussion here). Real personal income ex-transfers is flat. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with s...
The Treasury’s latest survey of independent forecasters shows every major economic indicator has worsened in a single month. Look at the data below. The sub-badges flag the worst...
From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today: Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), March SPF median (brown), GDPNow (lig...
Real consumption upside surprise, but large personal income ex-transfers downside surprise, plus downward revisions (along with Q1 GDP downward revision). Figure 1: NFP employment...
“Stability does not mean the absence of risk, but the capacity to manage it effectively.” IMF. The world’s second-largest economy dazzles with trillions in GDP, vast trade networks...
BLS and ADP data are among the first measurements of economic activity in March, after the war’s start. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (t...
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