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Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index… NBER BCDC key measures: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NF...
From the releases today: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed popula...
Not standard NBER BCDC indicators, but still interesting. First, all measures of personal income (pretax, aftertax) are down while consumption growth slows. Figure 1: Consumption (...
Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized): Figure 1: GDP (blue bars), SPGMI monthly GDP (red), Brave-Butters-Kelley index (blue), Coincident Index...
(click to enlarge) China’s economy continues to face a difficult balance as weak domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn and external geopolitical risks weigh on confidence....
Monthly GDP through March is up, while April CPI-deflated retail sales are down. The industrial and manufacturing production release is tomorrow. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blu...
BLS and ADP data are among the first measurements of economic activity in March, after the war’s start. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (t...
NFP up, but household survey series down. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), pe...
Venezuela’s central bank released limited GDP data for the first time since 2019. I use the new base year to track how different sectors emerged from the crisis
The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be OBE given slowdown pre-War, and post-War cost-push shock. However, I ex...
As The Telegraph reports in an email this morning: Britain’s economy expanded in the first three months of the year despite the outbreak of the Read the full article...
In the world of big data, we’re often talking about predictive modeling and the power of clean datasets. We look at trends, we analyze risk, and we try to forecast the future with...
From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today: Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), March SPF median (brown), GDPNow (lig...
Better than expected jobs report amid other less positive news.
G.17 release today shows downward movement in industrial, manufacturing production (-0.5%, -0.1% vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1% m/m). Industrial capacity utilization also below cons...
Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment: Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturi...
デジタル庁は19日、公表される行政データを使いやすい形で公開する「Japan Dashboard」のGDP統計を強化した。
The President’s FY2027 budget was released yesterday, some two months late. The economic forecast, based on data available in November, is out of line with other forecasts based on...
Real consumption upside surprise, but large personal income ex-transfers downside surprise, plus downward revisions (along with Q1 GDP downward revision). Figure 1: NFP employment...
GDP grows 2% SAAR in the Q1 advance release (see Jim’s discussion here). Real personal income ex-transfers is flat. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with s...
Nominal retail sales grew 1.7% m/m, above Bloomberg consensus of 1.4%. With the advance release of sales, and coincident index from the Philadelphia Fed, we have the following pic...
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