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Ah great, the new book on Bayesian workflow by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, Richard McElreath I knew they were working on is about to appear! With entries from several coauthors an...
This post will look at the problem of updating an average grade as a very simple special case of Bayesian statistics and of Kalman filtering. Suppose you’re keeping up with your av...
Continue reading: “Approximating evidence via bounded harmonic means” is out! [in Statistics and Computing]
We’re very excited about this book. It’s the result of several years of effort. You can pre-order from the publisher or from Amazon. Here’s the book’s webpage, which includes the d...
by Dhorasso Temfack, Jason Wyse Estimating latent epidemic states and model parameters from partially observed, noisy data remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling...
This is Leo. Jonah Gabry (Stan developer, Andrew’s collaborator, etc.) is spending the whole month of May as a visiting professor here with us at the University of Trieste in Italy...
Statistics is the most advanced form of mathematics by which predictions about the future can be made with some degree of surety It is the vital cog linking biology and maths. Howe...
Ryan Giordano, Alice Cima, Jared Murray, Erin Hartman, and Avi Feller write: Multilevel regression and poststratification (MrP) has become a workhorse method for estimating populat...
Two weeks ago we modeled vote choice with candidates C = {Left, Right, Other} as a multinomial logit: P[voter i chooses candidate c from C] = exp(f(X_ic)) / sum_c’ exp(f(X_ic’)) We...
An anonymous statistics student from France sends in the above plots (click twice to see big versions) and writes: I’m trying to push French pollsters to start doing MRP. I made a...
Bayesian Reasoning for Qualitative Case Studies and Comparative Research Half Day Short Course | Register here 2026 APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition — Boston, MA 1:30 pm – 5:30...
David Eubanks writes: My site is kappazoo.com, and it’s still a work in progress. I would rather have emailed after I had the new goodness-of-fit code done, but I saw that you’re d...
Optimal Resolution in Histograms: A Rigorous Bayesian Approach to Density Fitting The post How to Mathematically Choose the Optimal Bins for Your Histogram appeared first on Toward...
by Shuze Liu, Trevor Holland, Wei Ji Ma, Luigi Acerbi The perception of the external world relies on integrating information from multiple sensory modalities. To do this effective...
In August 2024, the 184-foot luxury yacht Bayesian sank in a storm at anchor off the Sicilian coast. Nearly two years later, blame is being decided. Report by Peter Swanson for Loo...
Three weeks ago we learned about design-based cross validation (dCV), shown in Figure 1(d) of Iparragirre et al. (2023): Each dot is a PSU (primary sampling unit), which can be an...
Three weeks ago we modeled vote choice with candidates C = {Left, Right, Other} as a multinomial logit: P[voter i chooses candidate c from C] = exp(f(X_ic)) / sum_c’ exp(f(X_ic’))...
Meng (2022) pops up a lot here: “it is the people” (the launch of this blog series a year ago !), “probability samples vs epsem samples vs SRS samples”, “divine probabilities”, and...
We ran this a few years ago but it remains interesting so I’m reposting: There’s a old saying in biology that the development of the organism recapitulates the development of the s...
Mark Goldstein points us to this post by Alex Dimakis, who writes: A paper was recently published in Science on highest level of human performance across athletics, science, math a...
JAGS 5.0.0-beta is now available from SourceForge. The beta release is for two groups of people: Please send feedback via the JAGS forums or file a bug report The JAGS library The...
I just got to chat with Andrew and some of the authors of the MrPlew paper: Ryan Giordano, Erin Hartman, and Avi Feller. Lots more I have to digest here ! The paper came out while...
A couple years ago, Jay Naborn wrote: I am studying people’s preference for categorically correct forecasts (such as getting the winner of a sports game right) over error-minimizin...
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