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WE all face uncertainty. The question is: how can we keep performing when faced with the disorder of uncertainty? Life will not happen according to our expectations. Peak performan...
Figure 1 (AI through Gemini) Can you suggest a Picture that will reflect the uncertainty of the global economy? As labeled, the top picture was created by AI (the red label shows m...
The great mercy of life is that we can change, we can reroute, we can surprise ourselves. The great pitfall of prediction is that, mercifully, we are unpredictable. — “All things a...
But hold shorts with strict stop-loss
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"All things are so very uncertain, and that’s exactly what makes me feel reassured."
Rarely will there be a perfect plan. That’s why being willing to be flexible often separates doers from dreamers.
Chrysi Malouchou Kanellopoulou reviews The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help us Make Sense of the Cosmos by Andrew H Jaffe The post Knowing through uncertainty: prob...
We’ve talked about uncertainty in polls (see Margin of Error, Total Margin of Error, Total Margin of Error II) and we’ve talked about ranked data (see exploded logit !). A new pape...
Through yesterday: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), EPU-trade policy (green, right scale), 7 day centered moving average (black, r...
Discover seven thought-provoking books that help you embrace uncertainty, complexity, and the unanswered questions of life.
Risk is climbing, pricing remains soft, and brokers may have a rare opportunity to revisit trade credit cover
Over the past year, I found myself reflecting on two observations from very different parts of my work. In my advisory work, as business conditions became increasingly difficult to...
Many people feel stuck because they are waiting for something they may never […]
“Whatever inspiration is, it’s born from a continuous ‘I don’t know,'” the Polish poet Wisława Szymborska observed in her magnificent Nobel Prize acceptance speech. But despite all...
Increased uncertainty in Fed policy may lead to volatile bond markets, impacting investment strategies and economic stability. The post Fed’s reduced guidance adds uncertainty to U...
“We are stumbling down a dark hallway to try to feel out whether there is a door to this room or that room that's unlocked," said Jed Shugerman, a Boston University School of Law p...
Policy predictability key for buyers, investors as govt reviews auto policy
"Whatever inspiration is, it's born from a continuous ‘I don't know.’"
AI chatbots rarely say "I don't know," and neither, increasingly, do we. But we can cultivate our epistemic resilience.
Federal turbulence during the Trump administration highlights the precarity of state and local funding, too.
For sellers, there will be uncertainty in most real estate deals.I wish that as soon as you sign a contract to sign your house I could tell you that you're guaranteed to make it to...
Donald Trump forces me to learn another obscure trade remedy (from the 1930’s). I’m pretty certain this will not achieve any economic goals, and yet sustain economic and trade poli...
"In a world full of people who seem to know everything, passionately, based on little (often slanted) information, where certainty is often mistaken for power, what a relief it is...
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