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Image How confident are you when someone asks, "When will it be done?"If you've worked with a Scrum Team for any length of time, you'll know this q...
Rio de Janeiro is a city that lives with rain on a knife’s edge. Steep granite massifs plunge into dense coastal neighborhoods, and when moderate storms roll in off the Atlantic, t...
Autoregressive rollout and uncertainty propagation. Second in a series on probabilistic forecasting for physical signals. The post Your Model's MSE Is Lying to You: Part II appeare...
First in a series on probabilistic forecasting for physical signals. Next: what happens when you roll the forecast forward more than one step. The post Your Model’s MSE Is Lying to...
A single deep learning model trained across 528 stocks, built to forecast volatility.Continue reading on Medium »
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input...
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input...
Weather forecasts have historically had a time frame hurdle that most weather models can't accurately predict beyond, but a group of researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of T...
Kalshi Inc. has entered a partnership with The Weather Company to bolster the data it uses to settle contracts in rapidly growing weather and climate prediction markets. The predic...
A diffusion head for probabilistic time series forecasting: why a forecast can get the mean and the variance right and still describe a future that never happens, and how to fix it...
by Meryl Theng, Simin Lee, Andrew C. Breed, Sharon Roche, Emily Sellens, Catherine Fraser, Kelly Wood, Chris P. Jewell, Mark A. Stevenson, Chris Baker, Simon M. Firestone Infectio...
by Joseph Lemaitre, Justin Lessler Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet it is difficult because epidemic...
Much has been written about how this year's El Niño is already breaking records. Climate Dashboard's new interactive map lets you explore how this unusually strong El Niño could af...
For Climate.us, Emily Becker explains why it looks like El Niño is going…Tags: Climate.us, El Niño, estimation, NOAA
The organizations that succeed are the ones that treat forecasting as a strategic capability rather than a back-office function
More storms ahead Thursday into Saturday. Plus: Will AI replace Paul Douglas?
A strong, long-lasting El Niño pattern is all but certain to last for several months, forecasts suggest.
To boost water availability in California, advanced weather forecast models can play a crucial role. Implementing Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations may yield an additional 315...
Point predictions tell you what a model *thinks* will happen. They don't tell you how much to trust that number. nnetsauce's `QuantileRegressor` takes any sklearn-compatible regres...
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input...
A model was already live, forecasting rain a day ahead. It looked done. Evaluating it properly is what showed it wasn’t.Continue reading on Medium »
Learn how probabilistic LLMs work, what that means for GEO and how marketers can improve visibility in AI search. The post Probabilistic Algorithms: How Much Can You Actually Influ...
Fengqing Ensemble V1.0 passed operational review at the National Meteorological Centre, with an 11-day effective forecast range for global 500 hPa height in independent tests.
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