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Prediction market platforms allow people to bet on real-world events like politics, culture, economics, war, and sports. Their defining feature is the buying and selling of contrac...
Prediction markets take wagers on coming events. Supporters tout them for forecasting; critics warn they encourage speculation and manipulation
As prediction markets surge in popularity, a new platform called Verifact Markets is pushing the concept even further, letting users trade on “disputed facts.”
Here is everything you need to know about four major prediction markets and which states each of them is legal in, along with additional information.
In recent years, prediction markets have become an increasingly prominent part of the financial industry. On these platforms, users trade contracts whose value depends on the proba...
A new platform turns disputed facts into tradable markets, flipping the prediction market model on its head
Prediction markets want you to see them (and use them) as one of the best possible instruments for finding out what’s happening in the world. Open any election market, and you’re i...
With over 30 million users globally, Americans can now trade on the World's Largest Prediction Marketâ„¢ Polymarket is a federally regulated exchange that lets you trade real-wor...
Every election cycle brings a new round of numbers, including polls, early voting tallies and fundraising totals. In recent years, prediction market prices tied to election outcome...
Prediction markets have stopped behaving like a betting curiosity and started behaving like market infrastructure.Executives who still file them under gambling are working from a s...
“The slow decline of traditional polling has left politicos, who are always desperate for numbers, in a lurch,” NOTUS reports. “Two venture-backed prediction market companies are o...
With Election Day just three weeks away, prediction market operators are counting on surging volume in political event contracts, but many voters oppose those derivatives. A Reuter...
They misfired during America’s primaries—but not in the way you might think
Prediction markets have taken off in popularity, drawing billions of dollars in trades. Some states have tried to ban them.
Prediction markets favored the eventual outcome in 86.4% of contracts examined in one study, but their record in competitive races was much less decisive and does not validate Ohio...
Kalshi settles bets with a rulebook and a person applying it. Polymarket settles them with a token-holder vote. World settles them with a data feed, no panel, no dispute window, no...
While some national polls favored President Lula over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Polymarket accurately predicted the opposite outcome days before the polls, giving Bolsonaro a lead....
With Election Day two weeks away, voters are being inundated with polling information and prediction market data is increasingly part of that landscape, but voters don’t like that....
No surprise to me but a new paper looks at the forecast accuracy of over one million prediction questions from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and the forecasting platform Metaculus....
Prediction markets are in desperate need of clear, coherent communication. The basics: What they are...
Annual prediction-market volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035 as contracts linked to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities take a larger share of trading, according to Bern...
Das Handelsblatt hat die Wahlausgänge aller US-Primaries ausgewertet und mit den entsprechenden Prognosemarkt-Wetten abgeglichen. Sind die Plattformen ein guter Indikator?
[PRESS RELEASE – Washington, United States, August 28th, 2026] As prediction-market volume hits record highs and regulators circle, identically worded midterm questions are trading...
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