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I see a lot of ebullience in the wake of the March headline NFP number. I’m not so convinced (see here), and looking at other indicators buttresses my wariness. Figure 1: Nonfarm p...
NFP up, but household survey series down. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), pe...
If it seems that the BLS CES nonfarm payroll employment series has looked a bit more variable than usual, you might not be imagining it (although one would be very hard pressed to...
Prior was +178K (revised to +185K)Two-month net revision -16KFebruary was -133K (revised to -156K). January was +160K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expectedPrior unemployment rate...
Both strongly beat consensus. From the Fed’s G.17 Release today: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industri...
Prior -92K (revised to -133K)Two-month net revision -7KJanuary was +126K (revised to +160K). December was -141K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected. Prior unemployment rate 4.4...
Let's dig into the non-farm payrolls report and the numbers we have so far.What's expected:Consensus estimate +60K (range -25K to +125K)January -92KPrivate payrolls consensus estim...
Nonresidential specialty contractors added the greatest number of new workers, boosting employment by an estimated 12,600 positions.
Nominal retail sales grew 1.7% m/m, above Bloomberg consensus of 1.4%. With the advance release of sales, and coincident index from the Philadelphia Fed, we have the following pic...
Preliminary nonfarm employment labor market estimates for February, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicate that New Jersey payrolls declined by 10,300 over the m...
ADP down while BLS up. Aggregate hours down. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment from BLS CES (blue, left log scale), from ADP (red, left log scale), in 000’s, s.a., total hours in...
Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index… NBER BCDC key measures: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NF...
Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment: Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturi...
円相場や株価に影響を及ぼすアメリカの雇用統計が発表され、4月の農業分野以外の就業者は前の月から11万5000人の大幅な増加となり、市場の予想を上回りました。イラン情勢によって物価が上昇す...
Nearly 1.3 million fewer people are employed today than this time last year. Beyond the headlines reporting on the recently-released April jobs report that told us 115,000 jobs wer...
By Andrew Moran The U.S. labor market could be showing signs of heating up after the economy topped economists’ expectations. April payrolls rose by 115,000, from the previous mont...
From the releases today: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed popula...
It's jobs day in the US and while markets are still fixated on US-Iran developments, the non-farm payrolls data will be a key risk event to look out for in wrapping up the week. Th...
WASHINGTON – NFIB’s March Jobs Report shows that the Small Business Employment Index fell 1.9 points to 101.6. Despite the decline, the current reading remains above the 2025 avera...
G.17 release today shows downward movement in industrial, manufacturing production (-0.5%, -0.1% vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1% m/m). Industrial capacity utilization also below cons...
NFIB’s recent March Jobs Report shows that the Small Business Employment Index fell 1.9 points to 101.6. The small business group says that despite the decrease, the current readin...
Overall job gains came despite despite losses in the professional and business services sector, while annual pay grew 4.4% year over year.
The health care, transportation, and retail sectors saw the biggest gains in April, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
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