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Plus: AI layoff fears and measles vaccine trust.
Veteran pollster Stefan Hankin points to several factors wrecking polling’s reputation. The post Why Political Polling Seems So Unreliable appeared first on Washington Monthly.
Veteran pollster Stefan Hankin reveals the industry secrets that help explain why polls seem so unreliable. The post Is Political Polling Broken? appeared first on
While a stunt involving fake polls may not have been an effort to rig prediction markets, concerns are growing ahead of the midterms about other attempts to influence the betting s...
Pollsters routinely miss the mark, but some pollsters aren't even trying to hit the target.Just months after a polling outfit that gave Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) a false sen...
'I don't think there will be a blue wave at all,' says James Blair.
The New York Times reporter Jeremy Peters told MS NOW the polls might be missing voters like Jewish Democrats who are turning against Abdul El-Sayed The post ‘A Big Deal!’ NYT Repo...
Poll-based forecasters and race-rating “experts” have different perspectives on how the midterms will unfold. Somebody’s going to be wrong.
Mary Radcliffe, Elliott Morris, Cooper Burton, and Fiftyplusone report: On Tuesday, Oct. 20, FiftyPlusOne reached out to Wedgewood Polls, a self-professed polling firm, with a requ...
“The slow decline of traditional polling has left politicos, who are always desperate for numbers, in a lurch,” NOTUS reports. “Two venture-backed prediction market companies are o...
With Election Day less than a month away, keeping up with the midterm elections can mean sifting through a constant stream of polls, headlines, and competing narratives.That’s why...
Plus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate?
The political consultant has an uncanny gift for finding charismatic progressives. Why do so many of them implode?
“You never see numbers like these,” said the data guru of the president’s collapse with a group “that ultimately really does determine elections.”
The CNN data analyst also cited a poll showing people are more likely to vote for a democratic socialist than someone endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Darwinfish² - the 2026 Election Beta Test; Earthbound Misfit - if you served and you are OK with this bullshit ... First Draft - remembering Walter Reuther; Tell Me a Story - there...
d r i f t g l a s s - the Midterms: now and 20 years ago; emptywheel - Trump prioritizes golf and Horst Wessel over 9/11; Joe.My.God. - Dems seek probe into Freedom 250 data colle...
Mock Paper Scissors: The dumbest plan yet. Annieasksyou…: Beware the psyops. Martin Longman: Could the Democrats sweep all of Texas’ statewide offices? The Handbasket: "Tommy" from...
Abdul el Sayed's Senate campaign faces scrutiny after he dodged a question about whether Israel or Iran poses a greater threat to the United States.
While a stunt involving fake polls may not have been an effort to rig prediction markets, concerns are growing ahead of the midterms about other attempts to influence the betting s...
Nearly every poll suggests Democrats are heading toward a massive wave election in November. Yet many Democrats remain skeptical. After being burned in 2024, they’re understandably...
Experts argue the debunked claims still used up critical preelection airtime.
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