Business Cycle Indicators: CES/CPS Employment Surges
Evidence of continued growth: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal incom...
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Evidence of continued growth: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal incom...
Robust GDP growth masks uneven sectoral performance and highlights the need for more labour-intensive jobs.
Labor union membership continues to climb in the United States, though the increase remains sharply divided by the politics of individual states. Last year, the nation added more t...
August 2026 employment grew 162,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.1%. A slowdown from spring suggests the labor market is easing, with tech sector weakness offsetting modest gain...
Labor union membership continues to climb in the United States, though the increase remains sharply divided by the politics of individual states. Last year, the nation added more t...
The number of unique active jobs rose by (+6.71%) to 8.75 million in Q3 2026, as employers resumed hiring activity amid stabilizing consumer spending and easing inflation concerns....
Over 7 years ago, we wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan's Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth. In t...
IP flat, below +0.3% m/m Bloomberg consensus, manufacturing -0.3% below +0.3%. Capacity utilization drops. Adding in monthly GDP, early benchmark NFP as well. Figure 1: NFP employm...
I first realised there was a problem with coal productivity when looking at diesel consumption, which is up about 70% per saleable tonne. The post Productivity has been weak. Mini...
The UCLA Anderson Forecast’s September 2026 outlook finds an economy that has largely weathered a series of disruptions, with economic growth remaining resilient, even as inflation...
From the ADP release: Figure 1: Change in manufacturing employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Ora...
Employment downside surprise, +29K vs +89, with cumulative 81K downward revisions to previous two months. Taking into account early benchmark, it’s not changing the picture too muc...
Today’s employment report aligned labor demand more closely with the positive cyclical dynamics seen in both US and global activity this quarter. While there remains a concern abou...
The Philippines has a growth problem that GDP statistics miss. Although the economy has expanded rapidly for most of the past decade, many Filipinos still cannot find work— or work...
Labor union membership continues to climb in the United States, though the increase remains sharply divided by the politics of individual states. Last year, the nation added more t...
This has been declining too big time pic.twitter.com/QYprmOcYja — Sam (@SamMillerWright) October 7, 2026 U.S. workers’ share of the economy falls to a record low https://ww...
and Monthly GDP for August, manufacturing production. First, NBER BCDC indicators: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold...
From Jesús Fernández-Villaverde: When machines can perform a growing share of tasks, growth depends on two margins: how the task structure affects the returns to accumulating machi...
U.S. economists expect a short-term improvement in hiring demand, before softening through mid-2027, according to the Q3 Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey, which is bas...
Wage gains for lower-paid Wisconsin workers have continued in 2026, but a halt in job creation suggests that might not last, says the author of a new report released ahead of Labor...
The news continues to point to broad and strong global growth momentum. It is thus no surprise that markets and central banks are increasingly expecting a higher path of rates. Wha...
Here are several measures of manufacturing employment. ADP suggests continued deterioration, while QCEW (through March) fell as official employment rose. Figure 1: Manufacturing em...
The labor market is cracking while inflation fades. Monthly job growth has collapsed from 500,000 at the 2022 peak to around 40,000, and economists see it staying there. Meanwhile...
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