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The Peterson Institute for International Economics presents the fall 2026 PIIE Global Economic Prospects, the Institute's semiannual outlook for the US and global economies. Karen...
Kalshi Research is doing interesting work on the fundamentals of prediction markets and also on how data from prediction markets can be used to improve other forecasts. Economists...
Recent releases: Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), October WSJ mean forecast (blue), GDPNow (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast (red *), October WEO (tan +). Source: BEA 2026Q2...
The global economy is stabilizing, but the fiscal support that cushioned successive shocks since 2020 is unlikely to play the same role in the year ahead, according to the World Ec...
Back at the end of 2024, EJ Antoni was citing the Primerica Household Budget Index as indicator of consumer conditions. A recent study by a major American bank showed over a quarte...
'Trade uncertainty is back with new U.S. tariffs now imposed, Canadian retaliation due early next month, and the prospect of further escalation hard to dismiss'
India GDP Row: Economists Montek Ahluwalia, Surjit Bhalla & Nilkanth Mishra Decode Data Controversy
Here is the link. The post The top private sector employers of economics graduates appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Another surge in energy prices alongside business hiring that has yet to perk up materially raises the same old question: How long can consumers keep spending without real purchasi...
Today’s employment report aligned labor demand more closely with the positive cyclical dynamics seen in both US and global activity this quarter. While there remains a concern abou...
Economists and policy-makers know, in a broad sense, how to respond to a negative shock to aggregate demand in an economy, like the financial meltdown leading to the Great Recessio...
A 0.6% inflation-adjusted spending gain in August—the strongest since March 2025—contrasts with fading confidence and leaves economists rethinking old signals
Watch Desjardin's Randall Bartlett on where interest rates are headed
First Edition newsletter will be hosting a reader Q&A with economist Isabella Weber, a leading voice on inflation, affordability and cost of living and now’s your chance to put...
Forecasts now run from a December hike to no change at all until the end of 2027
Ökonom*innen heben ihre Wirtschaftsprognosen an. Trotzdem fordern Neoliberale unter ihnen, an den geplanten Reformen festzuhalten. mehr...
U.S. economists expect a short-term improvement in hiring demand, before softening through mid-2027, according to the Q3 Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey, which is bas...
Whether this is the best of economies, the worst of economies, or something in between, you can bet that for the next month-plus we'll be told it's the worst.
Speakers Zafar Nazim, Head of Emerging Markets Corporate Research Ayomide Mejabi, Senior Economist Sub-Saharan Africa Soo Chong Lim, Head of APAC Credit Research Nicolaie Alexa...
The BLS reported that payrolls jumped by 162,000, more than tripling estimates of a 50,000 gain. Unemployment held at 4.1%, and wages rose 0.3% for the month. Below, we share a bul...
Citizens’ Mark Valentino and Eric Merlis unpack the business implications of Jackson Hole, arguing that the most important signal for Main Street may be the persistence of economic...
Citizens’ Mark Valentino and Eric Merlis unpack the business implications of the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike, examining what the new borrowing environment means for investme...
Ahead of the midterms, Natasha Sarin and Catherine Rampell unpack the state of the economy — and how much responsibility the president bears for it.
In A Nutshell: Every CPI inflation print has the potential to send rates up or down, and this Wednesday’s is no exception. There’s still an open question as to how many more hikes...
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