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Kalshi Research is doing interesting work on the fundamentals of prediction markets and also on how data from prediction markets can be used to improve other forecasts. Economists...
The Hollywood Reporter's executive editor of awards coverage assesses all 24 Academy Awards categories.
Annual prediction-market volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035 as contracts linked to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities take a larger share of trading, according to Bern...
Poll-based forecasters and race-rating “experts” have different perspectives on how the midterms will unfold. Somebody’s going to be wrong.
Prediction markets take wagers on coming events. Supporters tout them for forecasting; critics warn they encourage speculation and manipulation
Prediction markets allow people to bet on just about anything.
The Hollywood Reporter's executive editor of awards offers his latest assessment following a slew of film festivals, the theatrical unveilings of 'You Can See Everything' and 'La B...
Recent releases: Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), October WSJ mean forecast (blue), GDPNow (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast (red *), October WEO (tan +). Source: BEA 2026Q2...
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input...
Futurology is weird. Our prefrontal lobes compel us to make up stories about things to come. Narratives that are sometimes enhanced by scientific projections and models and plausi...
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input...
A single deep learning model trained across 528 stocks, built to forecast volatility.Continue reading on Medium »
Using a plain vanilla term spread model (spread, short rate), what remains? From notes for tomorrow’s lecture. Figure 1: Estimated recession probabilities from probit on 10yr-3mo t...
Highlights: The highest average return is 7.39% for the Top 5 Signals on a 3-month time horizon. The average return across all signal and horizon groups is positive. Predictions...
Package Name: Indices Forecast Recommended Positions: Long Forecast Length: 1 Year (9/9/25 - 9/9/26) I Know First Average: 30.81% Read The Full Forecast...
Prediction markets favored the eventual outcome in 86.4% of contracts examined in one study, but their record in competitive races was much less decisive and does not validate Ohio...
In a forecasting special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics for the U.S. midterm elections, all forecasters predict that the Democrats will capture the House of Represen...
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input...
Highlights: The highest average return is 77.36% for the Top 5 Signals on a 1-year time horizon.. The average return across all signal and horizon groups is positive. Predictions...
Heading out the door for the Labor Day weekend, with blue skies and 85° temperatures, I had to share a chart. It’s from the San Francisco Federal Reserve (via Torsten Slok of A...
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