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I’ve been remiss in reporting on this important work by Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose, documenting periods of monetary policy tightening ad loosening, and characteristi...
Strong demand is rarely the mistake, misjudging the supply response and the cycle is. Why a commodity can have a bright future and still be a poor investment.
Cyclical stocks are shares whose prices follow the economic cycle. During periods of economic growth, cyclical stocks rise, allowing investors to earn above-average market returns....
The next decade is not going to favor all states equally, nor will the state-level patterns of this decade necessarily continue into the next. Businesses and investors that fail to...
Despite the purchasing power squeeze from the Middle East conflict, the resilient cycle has dominated the macro landscape. Business spending on capex and hiring looks be broadening...
Businesses are entering a critical strategic window as economic conditions continue to evolve ahead of the anticipated 2030 downturn.
Today’s post looks at the Growth Trend Timing model from Philosophical Economics. The post Growth Trend Timing appeared first on 7 Circles.
WARREN, Ohio – Despite geopolitical conflicts, inflation concerns and market uncertainty, the U.S. economy remains resilient as consumer spending, business investment and a stable...
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021). Th...
Imagine a giant wave that builds momentum over the years and rolls on for decades. That is roughly what a commodity supercycle looks like: a prolonged period of rising commodity pr...
Inflation continues to be one of the most important economic forces shaping business decisions in 2026.
The concept has helped explain why broad measures of the economy don't always reflect the financial struggles many Americans report feeling.
Bond market pundits often warn that bear yield curve flatteners or inverted yield curves ultimately lead to recessions. Similarly, some equity experts caution that periods of viole...
Personal income, consumption, slightly above consensus; manufacturing and trade industry sales (April), and 3rd release GDO: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employme...
Edward Chancellor advocates the capital cycle approach, urging investors to focus on industry supply, capital allocation and management quality instead of demand forecasts. He argu...
POLAND, Ohio — Despite four major shocks in the past six years, the U.S. economy remains resilient, according to Olu Omodunbi, chief economist with Huntington Private Bank. Omodunb...
Media headlines following the Bureau of Labor Statistics June jobs report, released July 2, were generally less than enthusiastic:
When the economy turns, working-class money rules change fast. Job security gets shaky, prices climb, and the safety margin between doing okay and becoming not okay gets thin in a...
For more than a decade, Bitcoin's halving-driven cycles have shaped the crypto market, reducing BTC supply and fueling periods of euphoria followed by sharp corrections. Today, how...
What Ayala Land is facing today are phase-driven or cyclical market downturns. The company’s underlying business model is robust enough to thrive beyond these temporary setbacks.
The K-shaped economy has become shorthand for a tidy story. The rich pull away while everyone else falls behind. It fits the mood, and it makes for a sharp headline. The problem is...
STR analysis finds credit utilization and income band data outperform GDP and inflation as demand predictors for luxury and economy hotel segments, pointing to increasingly fragmen...
NFP underwhelms and prior months revised downward, civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept moving downward. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civili...
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