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Cook Political Report Shifts South Carolina, Mississippi Toward Democrats and Minnesota Toward GOP

by Rich Mitchell at CDN - The nonpartisan forecaster moved three Senate races on Tuesday, citing candidate quality, while saying the changes do not alter its overall outlook for c...

Mild-mannered and cautious election guru predicting GOP Armageddon

Charlie Cook has been doing election analysis for a long time. It’s worth reading what he has to say.

Cook Political Report Shifts 18 House Races Left, Including Four GOP-Held Seats from Toss Up to Lean D

The Cook Political Report shifted 18 House races to the left Friday — including four currently held by Republican incumbents. The post Cook Political Report Shifts 18 House Races L...

Cook Political Report shifts Florida gubernatorial race from ‘solid’ to ‘likely’ Republican

Political forecaster moves open Kentucky House seat rating toward Democrats

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election predictor out of the University of Virginia, moved Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District from a “likely Republican” win to “leans Republican.”

GOP hold on Florida and Texas governors’ races weakens, nonpartisan analyst says

President Donald Trump’s poor ratings contributed to the Cook Political Report shifting both races from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”

Eleven More House Races Shift Toward Democrats

Cook Political Report: “Republicans’ troubles this cycle are particularly pronounced in Midwestern red states, where voters are frustrated by both the federal and state governments...

GOP hold on South Carolina’s Senate seat is slipping

Cook Political Report reclassified the race favoring Sen. Darline Graham from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”

Political forecaster moves open Kentucky House seat rating toward Democrats

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election predictor out of the University of Virginia, moved Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District from a “likely Republican” win to “leans Republican.”

New Battleground District Poll Shows Democrats Up

Cook Political Report: “A new Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House districts in the country finds Democrats in a strong position to flip control of the...

Cook moves 18 more House races toward the left

Polling and the work of prognosticators like the Cook Political Report suggest Democrats are likely to take back the House in November.

Betting on Politics: Who Wins the U.S. Senate?

The Red Undertow in the Midterms

Charlie Cook on how the toxicity of Trump may pull his party down. The post The Red Undertow in the Midterms appeared first on Washington Monthly.

Cook Political Report shifts 18 more House seats in Democrats' favor ahead of midterms

A new Cook Political Report shifted 18 more House seats in democratic candidates' favor, with midterms just 25 days away. CBS News' political director Fin Gómez breaks it down.

Notes From Political No-Man's Land

Stick a Fork in These Races

Charlie Cook: “The big story is the cratering of GOP prospects over the last six weeks. A glimpse of that is obvious in consumer confidence among Republicans plummeting during Sept...

A Revised Model for Forecasting Seat Swing in the Senate

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Despite the collective Republican lean of the Senate seats being contested this year, the current average Democratic lead in generic ballot polling al...

Our Best Guess On the Toss-Ups as Labor Day Nears

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Republicans probably retain a slight edge in the Senate, but that assessment has gotten harder to defend over the course of the summer.”

Hogwash': NRSC Leadership Blasts Politico Report on GOP Abandoning Key States As 'Misleading'

Wave or No Wave: Two Paths for the Midterms

Poll-based forecasters and race-rating “experts” have different perspectives on how the midterms will unfold. Somebody’s going to be wrong.

Three Senate races shift toward Democrats in Cook ratings

The latest changes reflect growing worries for Republicans.

The Biggest Sign Yet That Democrats Will Flip the House

The very cautious Cook Political Report is pointing to a Democratic House win, while most election forecasters flat out predict a House-Senate sweep.

Major Election Forecaster Shifts Kansas Senate Race To Toss-Up for Seat Dems Haven’t Held Since FDR

by Nicole Silverio at CDN - Cook Political Report, a prominent elections forecaster, shifted the Kansas Senate race Tuesday from leaning Republican to a “toss up.” The new rating...

Expert Ratings Are Ignoring Signs of a Blue Wave

Nate Silver: “Democrats’ Senate chances are now between 63 percent and 69 percent in all three versions of FLIPR, including 65 percent in our headline ‘Deluxe’ version.” “For what...