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Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach (@WEschenbach on X, my personal blog is here) The IPCC describes computer climate models as follows: “Climate models are mathematical representation...
It has always been a bit of a mystery why the IPCC CMIP models reproduce the tropospheric temperature profile so poorly, here we try and explain the problem. The post Modeling the...
Well, for my usual lack of reasons, I got to thinking about updating the subject of my three previous posts relating the input and the output of climate models. To my surprise, the...
Every six to seven years, climate modelling groups around the world run a coordinated set of simulations that explore how… The post Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and h...
Today’s climate models are so inaccurate they must be improved a hundredfold just to detect a CO2 signal in climate change. The post New Study: NASA’s Models Wildly Underestimate T...
In late April, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change admitted that Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, or RCP8.5, the high-emissions climate model scenario that...
In April 2026 we published a guest blog post by John Lang in which he introduced his "Climate Trunk" graphics project and website. Since then, he has been adding one graphic per we...
Author(s): Ryan WilkinsonA new algorithm combines AI weather forecasts with a physics-based climate model to efficiently characterize rare and dangerous weather events.[Physics 19,...
Recent Germany forecasts of “never seen before heat” coming next week are already fizzling out. OI course there’s going to be some hot weather next week, but probably nothing like...
Two recent models have some welcome news: Trump’s rollbacks and assault on the Inflation Reduction Act have not been as cataclysmic as feared. At least not yet. The models come fr...
AI climate change predictions by Gemini I am back to AI as a quantitative predictor (June 26, 2026 blog). I interrupted my discussion of the topic to describe events connected to I...
Europe’s buildings are being designed with weather data that may already belong to the past. Engineers commonly rely on Typical Meteorological Years, or TMYs, assembled from decade...
Open access notables Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report, Santer et al., Earth s Future A July 2025 report from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) made...
Open access notables Observed Multi-Decadal Acceleration of Globally Averaged Abyssal Ocean Warming, Johnson, Geophysical Research Letters Given sparse historical data in the dee...
Google released a weather model earlier this year that beats the best forecast in the world 97% of the time. Free. Clean API. Drop-in compatible with what we already run. Every da...
Open access notables Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline, Chan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Recent analyses have...
When the observations disagree with the model, claim the model is right anyway? The post Claim: “Natural Variability” Hid the Real Magnitude of Global Warming Between 1981 and 2014...
Ocean temperatures are already brushing record territory months before this El Niño is expected to peak, and researchers say the climate models insurers rely on may be underestimat...
Ocean temperatures are already brushing record territory months before this El Niño is expected to peak, and researchers say the climate models insurers rely on may be underestimat...
“…data on CO2 cannot be explained by the model of the greenhouse effect as the driver for temperature” Today’s climate models assume there is a perpetual positive feedback as more...
A newly discovered Arctic process can dramatically boost the number of particles that help form clouds. Near melting sea ice, sunlight reacts with chemicals released by the ocean,...
I’ve put together a short guide: How Do I Build a Model? A starting guide for new modellers. It’s free, online, and aimed squarely at the graduate student who has a research questi...
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