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Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021). Th...
Here's a survey that's half good news, half outdated-on-arrival.The Bank of Canada's Q1 Business Outlook Survey landed this morning and the headline is that business sentiment has...
Canada just saw one of its biggest months on record for new businesses, but just as many shut down. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows the number of active businesses fell in F...
The release of Q1 GDP pushed growth to a very slight negative number (-0.1% vs Bloomberg consensus +1.5% q/q AR), after a downwardly revised Q4 print. Lots of skeptical commentary...
Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index… NBER BCDC key measures: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NF...
The Canadian economy is officially in a technical recession, but at least one Big Six bank says we’re not there. At least, right now. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows real gr...
New data shows capital spending still below 2014 levels as CFIB presses Ottawa on small business tax cuts
The Canadian economy bounced back in the first quarter after a softer end to 2025, with growth driven by an expansion in goods-producing industries.
The Canadian economy just got another warning—businesses are closing at one of the fastest rates on record. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows business closures surged in Janua...
January GDP edges higher, but economists point to patchy growth and improving Q1 outlook
The Canadian economy edged into a technical recession as weak business and government spending drove a slight contraction in the first quarter.
Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment: Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturi...
Monthly GDP through March is up, while April CPI-deflated retail sales are down. The industrial and manufacturing production release is tomorrow. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blu...
The overall outlook remains mixed year over year
After whipsaw reports through 2025, Q1 reporting from Statistics Canada meets the definition of recession
Six straight quarters of decline signal weakening small business confidence nationwide
Prior was -0.6%GDP +0.0% q/q vs -0.2% priorMarch GDP -0.1% vs +0.0% expectedPrior +0.2%Full report hereReal gross domestic product was unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, after...
Manufacturing was one of the hardest-hit sectors of the economy
Services activity declined, with the PMI at 47.2 (below 50 = contraction), though slightly improved from February at 46.5New business fell again, but the pace of decline eased to a...
Canadians aren’t exaggerating when they complain about this job market—hiring hasn’t been this weak in almost a decade. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows fewer job vacancies i...
OTTAWA — Statistics Canada says economic growth stalled in the first quarter, leading to a second consecutive decline in real gross domestic product. That meets some definitions fo...
Estimates suggest the economy grew in the first quarter, after contracting at end of 2025
CFIB's business barometer fell sharply this month, with every province and every sector reporting a decline
CFIB warns the “entrepreneurial drought” is eroding growth, confidence, and market dynamism
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