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Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021). Th...
Friday release of May employment (labor force survey): Figure 1: Monthly employment from Labor Force survey (blue), nonfarm payroll employmet from Survey of Payroll, Employment and...
Canada just saw one of its biggest months on record for new businesses, but just as many shut down. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows the number of active businesses fell in F...
Tons of politically motivated commentary in Canada about the implications of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and a “technical recession” [1], even though it’s clear m...
Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025: Figure 1: Canadian real GDP (blue bars), monthly GDP (black line), both in logs 2025M10=0. Source: StatCan, and autho...
The release of Q1 GDP pushed growth to a very slight negative number (-0.1% vs Bloomberg consensus +1.5% q/q AR), after a downwardly revised Q4 print. Lots of skeptical commentary...
The Financial Post reports: Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see Canada’s economy expanding just 0.7% this year after shrinking in the first quarter. Here’s a picture of the fo...
The Canadian economy is officially in a technical recession, but at least one Big Six bank says we’re not there. At least, right now. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows real gr...
New data shows capital spending still below 2014 levels as CFIB presses Ottawa on small business tax cuts
Personal income, consumption, slightly above consensus; manufacturing and trade industry sales (April), and 3rd release GDO: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employme...
Canadian economic data will be volatile as the government works on a broader transformation of the economy, Prime Minister Mark Carney said in response to last week’s gross domesti...
The Canadian economy edged into a technical recession as weak business and government spending drove a slight contraction in the first quarter.
Canada’s economy is set to rebound sharply in the second quarter amid a spike in oil production, breaking a half-year of stagnation.
Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment: Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturi...
Rising labour costs outpaced growth at the start of 2026
After whipsaw reports through 2025, Q1 reporting from Statistics Canada meets the definition of recession
NFP underwhelms and prior months revised downward, civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept moving downward. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civili...
By Matthew Horwood The C.D. Howe Institute says it’s too soon to conclude that Canada has entered a recession, after the latest data from Statistics Canada showed the economy contr...
BNCCI ticks up to 51.24 as expectations improve, personal finance views stay soft
Assuming no growth in June, the industry-based output data suggests Canada’s economy will expand at a 2.3% annualized pace in the second quarter.
Energy powered the April rebound, but economists say the Bank of Canada stays on hold
From StatCan today, employment reverses May decline, rises 18.2K vs 11.2K Bloomberg consensus. The employment sitrep as of today’s release: Figure 1: Canadian employment over 15yrs...
Prior was -0.6%GDP +0.0% q/q vs -0.2% priorMarch GDP -0.1% vs +0.0% expectedPrior +0.2%Full report hereReal gross domestic product was unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, after...
Prior was +4.2%sales rose in 14 of the 21 subsectorsTransportation equipment +4.1%Sales of motor vehicles increased 11.8% m/m vs -4.6% priorп»їп»їChemical +4.6%Electrical equipment...
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