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digitalthoughtdisruption.com /1 month ago

Bayesian Inference and Predictive Processing: Why AI Needs Evidence

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towardsdatascience.com /1 month ago

Why You Think Like a Bayesian but Were Taught Like a Frequentist

From a chocolate bar with no price tag to a marketing mix model in PyMC, and the 200-year-old integral that stood in between. The post Why You Think Like a Bayesian but Were Taught...

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towardsdatascience.com /6 days ago

Inferring the Host: A Bayesian Look at the Monty Hall Problem

"Always switch" is true for one particular host. Watch a few episodes and you can work out which host you've got. The post Inferring the Host: A Bayesian Look at the Monty Hall Pro...

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towardsdatascience.com /1 month ago

Beyond Point Predictions: A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Neural Networks

More informed decision-making through uncertainty quantification The post Beyond Point Predictions: A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Neural Networks appeared first on Towards D...

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johndcook.com /1 month ago

Bayesian OCR

The Greek letter β (beta) and the German letter ß (eszett) look similar, especially in some fonts. Now suppose an OCR program sees some character that could be a beta or could be a...

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statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu /1 month ago

“Belief” is not something you have; rather, it’s a relationship between thought and action.

I came across this piece by John Ziman from 1989, in the middle of the “cold fusion” hoopla: When scientific controversies erupt like this, one must obviously try to grasp the esse...

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statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu /2 weeks ago

Bayesian Workflow code is at the Bayesian Workflow website!

Bayesian Workflow isn’t just a free pdf, it’s also an ecosystem of worked examples with code. Over and over in the book we go through examples really carefully—God is in every leaf...

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statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu /2 days ago

How to get the most out of Bayesian Data Analysis

Appendix B of our new Bayesian Workflow book is called “How to get the most out of Bayesian Data Analysis”: Our thinking about Bayesian statistics is summarized in the books Bayesi...

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statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu /3 weeks ago

Prior distributions, partial pooling, and reference sets (Bayesians are frequentists)

Sudip Paul writes: I’ve written a blog post arguing that the philosophical reference class problem — which comparison group is “right” for assigning a probability to an individual...

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bioengineer.org /1 month ago

Bayesian networks improve probabilistic rainfall inference in Rio de Janeiro

Rio de Janeiro is a city that lives with rain on a knife’s edge. Steep granite massifs plunge into dense coastal neighborhoods, and when moderate storms roll in off the Atlantic, t...

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journals.plos.org /1 month ago

R-package agentBayes: Likelihood-based statistical methods for agent-based models

by Niklas Moser, Dmitri Finkelshtein, Georgy Chargaziya, Stephen J. Cornell, Sara Hamis, Jacob G. Scott, Dagim Shiferaw Tadele, Otso Ovaskainen Statistically analysing interacting...

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r-bloggers.com /2 weeks ago

Bayesian workflow [book review]

“This original, thought-provoking, and transforming, book is much much more than an implementation manual for Bayesian Data Analysis, even though it shares almost the same perspect...

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towardsdatascience.com /1 month ago

The 95% Illusion: Why Your Confidence Interval Isn't What You Think It Is

Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals answer different questions, and confusing them can distort product decisions The post The 95% Illusion: Why Your Co...

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journals.plos.org /2 weeks ago

How does explicit reliability guide choices? Effect of trustworthiness on choice and metacognition

by Keiji Ota, Anthony Ciston, Patrick Haggard, Thibault Gajdos Preuss, Lucie Charles A key challenge in today’s fast-paced digital world is to integrate information from various s...

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link.aps.org /1 week ago

Quantum Probability Requires Probability

Author(s): John B. DeBrotaA new analysis reveals that all major derivations of the Born rule depend on a probabilistic assumption.[Physics 19, 133] Published Tue Oct 13, 2026

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statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu /1 month ago

Confirmation bias in software testing, Walnutpie edition

So, those exciting results I presented at StanCon about Walnutpie? Let’s pull back the curtain. Confirmation bias in testing Those stellar results were the result of a bug in the w...

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towardsdatascience.com /2 days ago

Same Answer, Different Reason: What a Reasoning Model Says When It Follows a Planted Hint

I put wrong answers in front of 200 exam questions and read what a small model’s reasoning said when it fell for them. The post Same Answer, Different Reason: What a Reasoning Mode...

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