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Common sense says that what you believe after seeing new data should be some sort of compromise between what you believed before and what the new data says. You don’t want to ignor...
Почему одни люди точнее прогнозируют будущее, чем другие? Дело не только в интеллекте или объёме информации. Главное преимущество суперпрогнозистов - байесовское мышление: новая ин...
An intuitive introduction to reasoning with uncertainty, from directed Bayesian networks to undirected Markov networks and weighted logical rules. The post Bayesian Networks and Ma...
I took a look at the above-titled book by economists Duncan Foley and Ellis Scharfenaker. It’s an interesting read, in many ways a throwback to the 1950s when a group of mathematic...
Esmeralda Whitammer, Sara Wade, Vincent Fortuin, Konstantina Palla, and Theodore Papamarkou write: We are organising a focused workshop on Rethinking the Role of Bayesianism in the...
Using artificial intelligence to decide where the next Euro goes.Continue reading on Berlin Tech Blog (by mobile.de & Kleinanzeigen) »
This post is from Bob. I’ve been thinking a lot about scores (gradients of the log density function) and how they can be used for convergence monitoring. We know that the expected...
A model is almost never 100% sure of anything. These 10 probability concepts explain how it makes decisions anyway.
A new study shows people still misjudge probability even when questions are made clear and familiar. The post New Study Uses Forest Fire Scenarios to Test a Classic Fl...
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