Search results for Bayesian Statistics

Kalman and Bayes average grades

This post will look at the problem of updating an average grade as a very simple special case of Bayesian statistics and of Kalman filtering. Suppose you’re keeping up with your av...

Bayesian Workflow [cover]

Ah great, the new book on Bayesian workflow by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, Richard McElreath I knew they were working on is about to appear!  With entries from several coauthors an...

The Bayesian Workflow book is coming!

We’re very excited about this book. It’s the result of several years of effort. You can pre-order from the publisher or from Amazon. Here’s the book’s webpage, which includes the d...

<![CDATA[Bringing the Bayesian Method to Clinical Trials: Q&A with Dr. Stacy Lindborg]]>

Bayesian Method Enhances Aggregated Chemical Exposure Assessment

In a landmark study set to reshape our understanding of environmental health risks, researchers have introduced a sophisticated Bayesian framework to comprehensively evaluate human...

MrPlew: Locally Equivalent Weights for Multilevel Regression and Poststratification

Ryan Giordano, Alice Cima, Jared Murray, Erin Hartman, and Avi Feller write: Multilevel regression and poststratification (MrP) has become a workhorse method for estimating populat...

Efficient sequential Bayesian inference for state-space epidemic models using ensemble data assimilation

by Dhorasso Temfack, Jason Wyse Estimating latent epidemic states and model parameters from partially observed, noisy data remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling...

My talk at Stanford later this month: “What to do when your estimate is 1 standard error away from 0?”

Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 4pm in CoDa E160: What to do when your estimate is 1 standard error away from 0? Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, C...

How to Mathematically Choose the Optimal Bins for Your Histogram

Optimal Resolution in Histograms: A Rigorous Bayesian Approach to Density Fitting The post How to Mathematically Choose the Optimal Bins for Your Histogram appeared first on Toward...

No, Bayes does not like Mayor Pete. (Pitfalls of using implied betting market odds to estimate electability.)

This one’s from 2019, but it’s worth reposting given recent interest in prediction markets. The story starts with a post from economist Greg Mankiw, who wrote: Who has the best cha...

Jonah’s seminar tomorrow: “Bayesian Workflow and the Software That Shapes It”

This is Leo. Jonah Gabry (Stan developer, Andrew’s collaborator, etc.) is spending the whole month of May as a visiting professor here with us at the University of Trieste in Italy...

Learning From Pairwise Preferences: An Introduction to the Bradley Terry Model

How to Turn Simple Head-to-Head Choices Into Probabilistic Rankings The post Learning From Pairwise Preferences: An Introduction to the Bradley Terry Model appeared first on Toward...

Survey Statistics: improving with structure

We’ve met Mr. P (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification). We’ve met Mrs. P (Multilevel Regression with Synthetic Poststratification). Now let’s meet Ms. P (Multilevel Structu...

Distilling noise characteristics and prior expectations in multisensory causal inference

by Shuze Liu, Trevor Holland, Wei Ji Ma, Luigi Acerbi The perception of the external world relies on integrating information from multiple sensory modalities. To do this effective...

The Kappa Zoo: David Eubanks’s online monograph on rating models

David Eubanks writes: My site is kappazoo.com, and it’s still a work in progress. I would rather have emailed after I had the new goodness-of-fit code done, but I saw that you’re d...

Why traditional statistics still matters in the age of AI

I was interviewed on this topic recently by Dr Genevieve Hayes for her podcast Value Driven Data Science. Here’s the blurb (not written by me): Data scientists today are under pre...

Survey Statistics: double-plus robustness

Meng (2022) pops up a lot here: “it is the people” (the launch of this blog series a year ago !), “probability samples vs epsem samples vs SRS samples”, “divine probabilities”, and...

Introduction to Deep Evidential Regression for Uncertainty Quantification

Machine learning models can be confident even when they shouldn't be. This article introduces Deep Evidential Regression (DER), a method that lets neural networks rapidly express w...

Why Superior Scientists, will never rely on Non-Inferiority trials?

Statistics is the most advanced form of mathematics by which predictions about the future can be made with some degree of surety It is the vital cog linking biology and maths. Howe...

Survey Statistics: Blue Rose Research is (still) hiring !

As readers may know, I’m a survey statistician at Blue Rose Research. We survey the public to forecast elections and test political messages, used to advise Democrats. On this blog...

Survey Statistics: exploded logit !

Two weeks ago we modeled vote choice with candidates C = {Left, Right, Other} as a multinomial logit: P[voter i chooses candidate c from C] = exp(f(X_ic)) / sum_c’ exp(f(X_ic’)) We...

Should French pollsters be using Mister P?

An anonymous statistics student from France sends in the above plots (click twice to see big versions) and writes: I’m trying to push French pollsters to start doing MRP. I made a...

Ruling out weather in Bayesian disaster

In August 2024, the 184-foot luxury yacht Bayesian sank in a storm at anchor off the Sicilian coast. Nearly two years later, blame is being decided. Report by Peter Swanson for Loo...

Alchemize: PyMC’s model to replace Stan/PyMC, etc. with an LLM

This post is from Bob I’ll let Thomas Wiecki, who is one of the core PyMC devs and one of the partners at PyMC Labs, speak for himself here: Thomas Wiecki. 2026. Alchemize: Transpi...