Social Media Ideas for Bayesian Decision Making

Bayesian Guardrails for AI Decisions: Measuring Uncertainty Before Automating Decisions

AI systems should not automate a decision simply because they can provide a prediction. A decision system should consider how uncertain the prediction is and defer if a mistake wou...

Bayesian Inference and Predictive Processing: Why AI Needs Evidence

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Beyond Point Predictions: A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Neural Networks

More informed decision-making through uncertainty quantification The post Beyond Point Predictions: A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Neural Networks appeared first on Towards D...

Beyond Guesswork — Bayesian Budget Allocation for Paid Search

Using artificial intelligence to decide where the next Euro goes.Continue reading on Berlin Tech Blog (by mobile.de & Kleinanzeigen) »

“Making Statistics Work: Information Theory and Bayesian Inference”

I took a look at the above-titled book by economists Duncan Foley and Ellis Scharfenaker. It’s an interesting read, in many ways a throwback to the 1950s when a group of mathematic...

Posterior mean

Common sense says that what you believe after seeing new data should be some sort of compromise between what you believed before and what the new data says. You don’t want to ignor...

Frequentism for Bayesians: He wants to teach frequentist methods to engineering students with a strong Bayesian backgro...

Beyond the teaching question, this is an interesting topic on its own: thinking about classical statistical ideas of point estimation, hypothesis testing, and uncertainty quantific...

Decision Coverage: Why AI Recommends Some Brands And Not Others

AI doesn't recommend products, it recommends decisions. A SaaS case study shows why missing evidence, not weak authority, causes exclusion from AI recommendations. The post Decisio...

Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!

When I first started working on posterior predictive checking back in 1988, it was as a device for determining equivalent degrees of freedom for a chi-squared test for a model with...

The optimal Bayesian update?

I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident: 1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expec...

Bayesian Analysis of AI-Driven Cost Savings in UK and Australian Health Care Systems: Cross-Sector Implementation Study

Background: Health care systems face growing fiscal pressure while AI reaches clinical parity in several domains. UK National Health Service expenditure rose by 52%, while Australi...

Ergodicity transformations predict human decision-making under risk

by Benjamin Skjold, Simon Richard Steinkamp, Colm Connaughton, Oliver James Hulme, Ole Peters Decision theories commonly model human behavior as maximizing the expected value of a...

Automated Decision-Making – Lessons (To Be) Learned

How To Design Better Branching Scenarios: Start With The Decision

Learn how to design branching scenarios around real decisions, with believable choices, meaningful consequences, and only the complexity the learning requires. This post was first...

Human vs AI Decision-Making in Project Management | Simplilearn

TL;DR: AI improves speed, forecasting, and data analysis, while humans provide context, ethics, empathy, and accountability. Strong project decisions rarely come from choosing one...

Base-Bear-Bull vs. Monte Carlo: Choosing the Right Uncertainty Model for Business Valuation

When valuing a private business, every analyst eventually confronts the same question: how do you responsibly account for the future’s uncertainty? Two approaches dominate the conv...

The decision discipline: How to turn insights into action

Here’s a test you can run on your own organisation. Think of the last genuinely important decision your team made. Now ask: did the data shape that decision, or did someone make th...

AI Agent Decisions Are Data. Treat Them Like It.

Most systems validate the data. Almost none validate the decision.Continue reading on Stackademic »

AI for Military Support

Interesting empirical research: “Black Box Warfare: Human Judgment and Military Decision-Making in the Age of AI.” Abstract: How is AI transforming decision-making in modern confli...

“Placebo tests deserve a model, not just a glance.”

Miha Gazvoda shares this post with the above title and the subtitle, “Using Bayesian multilevel models to correct bias and calibrate uncertainty.” He’s using the chickens model fro...

A Bayesian framework for multivariate differential analysis

by Marie Chion, Arthur Leroy Differential analysis is a routine procedure in the statistical analysis toolbox across many applied fields, including quantitative proteomics, the ma...

Reviews of our Bayesian Workflow book from Bin Yu, David Spiegelhalter, Brad Efron, Christian Robert, Rohan Alexander, a...

Roughly speaking, Bayesian Workflow is to Bayesian Data Analysis in 2026 what Bayesian Data Analysis was to earlier Bayesian books in 1995: it builds upon everything that came befo...

Data driven decision making? Human judgement IS data driven

Follow and subscribe to the channel for more guest snippets from Brainfood Live The post Data driven decision making? Human judgement IS data driven first appeared on Recruiting He...

The perils of omitting omissions when modeling evidence accumulation

by Xiamin Leng, Alexander Fengler, Amitai Shenhav, Michael J. Frank Response deadlines are commonly imposed in decision-making research to incentivize speedy decisions and sustain...