Search results for Bayesian

Bayesian Workflow [cover]

Ah great, the new book on Bayesian workflow by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, Richard McElreath I knew they were working on is about to appear!  With entries from several coauthors an...

Efficient sequential Bayesian inference for state-space epidemic models using ensemble data assimilation

by Dhorasso Temfack, Jason Wyse Estimating latent epidemic states and model parameters from partially observed, noisy data remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling...

Distilling noise characteristics and prior expectations in multisensory causal inference

by Shuze Liu, Trevor Holland, Wei Ji Ma, Luigi Acerbi The perception of the external world relies on integrating information from multiple sensory modalities. To do this effective...

Kalman and Bayes average grades

This post will look at the problem of updating an average grade as a very simple special case of Bayesian statistics and of Kalman filtering. Suppose you’re keeping up with your av...

<![CDATA[Bringing the Bayesian Method to Clinical Trials: Q&A with Dr. Stacy Lindborg]]>

Bayesian Method Enhances Aggregated Chemical Exposure Assessment

In a landmark study set to reshape our understanding of environmental health risks, researchers have introduced a sophisticated Bayesian framework to comprehensively evaluate human...

No, Bayes does not like Mayor Pete. (Pitfalls of using implied betting market odds to estimate electability.)

This one’s from 2019, but it’s worth reposting given recent interest in prediction markets. The story starts with a post from economist Greg Mankiw, who wrote: Who has the best cha...